Recent geopolitical developments have brought renewed attention to the vulnerability of health product supply chains and the regulatory and operational challenges faced by manufacturers. The availability of health products in Ukraine since the outbreak of the armed conflict, combined with recent (albeit aborted) announcements relating to Greenland, the evolving situation in Venezuela, and ongoing risks linked to Iran, illustrate a broader context of geopolitical instability that directly affects the life sciences and health care sector.

At the European level, increased investment efforts in defense and military capabilities have been widely discussed and initiated. While primarily focused on security and defense, such efforts inevitably have spillover effects on other strategic sectors, including health care. Health product manufacturers are therefore prompted to assess how they can anticipate and absorb the consequences of geopolitical tensions, including in scenarios involving armed conflict or abrupt political shifts.

Certain actors in the sector are already subject to particularly stringent regulatory obligations and may be comparatively better prepared to demonstrate resilience in the event of a crisis. This is notably the case in France for manufacturers of medicinal products of major therapeutic interest, which are subject to security stock obligations, as well as operators classified as operators of vital importance. In the event of a deterioration of the geopolitical situation or entry into an armed conflict, these actors would likely be partially prepared to ensure continuity of supply and compliance with existing regulatory requirements, and notably obligations relating to national security stock management.

However, more generally, the accumulation of political deadlines, and the risk of abrupt geopolitical changes in 2026, require all sector stakeholders to reflect without delay on their level of preparedness. This issue is multifaceted and particularly acute in the sector due to its regulatory constraints and structural dependencies. From a legal and operational perspective, several key risks must be considered:

• supply tensions arising from armed conflicts or geopolitical tensions may expose companies to situations of non-compliance with applicable regulations or contractual commitments vis-à-vis suppliers or customers;
• the securing and diversification of sources of supply becomes critical in a context of potential export restrictions, sanctions regimes, or logistical disruptions;
• supply chain disturbances may have cascading effects on pricing, manufacturing timelines, and distribution capacities; and
• geopolitical instability may slow down innovation, delay the launch of clinical trials, and hinder market access for new health products.

While these challenges are not entirely unprecedented – having echoes of the COVID-19 crisis and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, during which companies had to cope with raw material shortages and sudden surges in demand – they nonetheless remain a realistic scenario to be considered for 2026.